Summer Vacation Is Just Weeks Away. What That Dream Vacation Will Cost You.

With the unofficial start of summer about to kick off this month, you’re probably wondering what to expect as you hop on a plane or head off for that epic road trip.

AAA is already forecasting the biggest Memorial Day travel weekend since 2005 this year, estimating that nearly 44 million people will be on the move.

Airline industry data points to lower prices for many destinations both domestic and international. This is despite airlines feeling crunches by delayed deliveries of Boeing planes following a door plug blowout on an Alaska Air flight in January.

Here’s what’s in store for summer vacationers.

Airlines are optimistic

Major airlines are predicting record demand. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said during an April earnings call: “We see a record spring and summer travel season.”

That’s already showing up in the number of people passing through airport checkpoints, up 6% on average so far this year compared with 2023, according to the Transportation Security Administration.

“This year we expect to be a very normal summer,” says Hopper economist Hayley Berg. “Revenge travel—I think that’s very much over and we’re back to normal.” Consumers are more price sensitive than they were last year and supply and demand are back in sync, Berg added.

More good news for air travelers: flight delays and cancellations have fallen over the past few months compared with the same period in 2023, according to data from Flight Aware.

That doesn’t mean airlines—or travelers—are out of the woods, however. The Boeing production issues mean airlines have fewer new planes to fly. “Given the capacity constraints and the fact that demand exceeds 2019 levels, but capacity doesn’t in all markets, we think consumers should be prepared for longer than normal wait times at security checkpoints,” says TD Cowen analyst Helane Becker.

If your flight does get delayed or cancelled, new Transportation Department rules announced by President Joe Biden in April will make it easier to get cash refunds. You can even get a refund if you paid for Wi-Fi but it wasn’t working on your flight.

Cheaper domestic flights—if you time it right

Vacationing in the 50 states is actually cheaper this summer—at least when it comes to airfare—with round-trip flight prices averaging $305, down 6% from 2023, according to travel site Hopper. The site’s projection for lower prices aligns with the latest inflation report showing a 7% drop compared with March 2023.

While airfare prices will peak in late June, ahead of the July 4 holiday, vacationers who can hold off until late August will see the lowest fares of all, averaging just $279 round trip. Top trending destinations this year include Lihue on Kauai Island in Hawaii, Portland, Ore., and Fairbanks, Ala.

A good summer for bucket-list travel abroad

With revenge travel subsiding, airfare to many international destinations has fallen as well. The best deals are on long-haul flights to destinations such as Australia, New Zealand, and Polynesia, which are down 16% compared with last year, according to Hopper data. Prices on flights to Europe, Mexico, and Central America are all down 8% on average as well.

A green light for road trippers

Nothing puts a damper on a long road trip like the $5 a gallon gas that much of the U.S. endured in the summer of 2022. That scenario is highly unlikely this year. “We expect this summer to be very similar to last year with most places seeing prices in the mid-$3 range, with the exception of California where prices are about a dollar fifty above the national average,” says GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan.

Gas prices so far this year look much like they did in 2023, AAA data show. “One wild card is hurricane season,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross told Barron’s. Forecasts show an active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. A big hurricane could knock out power and shut down refineries, Gross noted, which in turn would raise prices.

The other concern is if the Israel-Hamas war escalates to the point where big oil producing countries in the region are affected, GasBuddy’s De Haan added.

Hotels, rental cars, and more

When it comes to hotels, mid-June and mid-August stays are cheapest, with prices dipping to a low of $228 a night on Aug. 15 versus a high of $263 on July 25, according to Hopper data. Among top U.S. destinations, Las Vegas and Orlando have the best deals of around $150 a night. Orlando also has the lowest daily rental car rates, averaging just $20 a night.

Seasoned travelers know that the absolute best way to save on summer travel is to push it off until the fall, when prices are as much as 30% lower than peak months. If that’s not an option, look for flights that depart on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, avoid peak times such as the Fourth of July, and try to book the first flight of the day to minimize delays. And as Mom always says, don’t forget to pack the sunscreen.

Have a great trip.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com