As 2024 Travel Hits Pre-Covid Levels, Here’s When To Go To Europe

2024 is going to be the year when global tourism rebounds to pre-pandemic levels, making popular tourist destinations overcrowded. There are sweet spots, however—times when you can still visit firm favorites like Rome and Paris with fewer crowds, cheaper airfares and still find some pleasant weather (also avoiding the extreme heat that local summers now bring).

Global tourism figures continued to grow throughout 2023 and according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, tourist numbers finished the year at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, helped in no small part by China's reopening. The UN World Tourism Organization predicts that by the end of 2024, travel will be back to pre-pandemic levels.

This is despite the incertitude brought on by the continued conflict in Europe and the Middle East and an unprecedented number of elections taking place this year in countries where travel contributes immensely to the economy.

It will be welcome news for the global economy, if not for the climate crisis—nothing has even come close to halting the industry's growth as the travel bans did in 2020 when Covid-19 first emerged. Between 1980 and 2019, international arrivals grew from 277 million per year to 1.5 billion, and the impact of SARS in 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009 were insignificant blips compared to the pandemic.

That means, during a year of predicted travel unpredictability it might be worth rethinking the usual times and places to vacation. That doesn't mean that you need to avoid the old favorites like New York, Rome and Paris—just visit off season, a term that itself is increasingly complicated when people can work remotely as they travel. That doesn't mean visiting in winter, when the skies are at their bleakest either.

The Washington Post believes the sweet spot for Rome is February to March, just after the busy festive season in December and before things heat up in April. The weather is pleasant and the flight booking site, Skyscanner, reports that this is also the time for the lowest airfare between Italy's capital and the U.S. Incidentally, to avoid the crowds, Thanksgiving is also a solid choice.

Stunning Istanbul had over 20 million international visitors in 2023 so it might be a great time to visit in September, when everyone else leaves (most people traditionally hit Turkey in July and August). The second-best time is March and Skyscanner reports that flights are cheapest in March from the U.S., but not that much more in September.

Hotel rooms and flights between the U.S. and Paris are lowest in February to April and again in September, and for Tokyo , it's a good idea to head some time between April to May. For New York , the best time might be September (but not during Fashion Week).

If you're still planning to travel during the peak summer season regardless, now is the time to book for the best deals . The Washington Post also advocates using Google Flights to see if you're being offered good value—it can say if the cost offered by the airline is higher or lower than seasonal averages.

For the world's most popular spots, like Paris, London and New York, you should be working to a four-to-seven-month booking window—essentially, to find great value deals, shop for flights in the opposite season to the one you're currently in.

By Alex Ledsom, Senior Contributor