Leadership Lessons From Dan Campbell’s Fourth Down Fixation

The strategies and philosophies of successful sports coaches have long been favored models for business leaders across industry sectors. And that’s understandable. What CEO wouldn’t be interested in replicating the management magic of a Nick Saban, an Andy Reid or a Dusty Baker?

And Detroit Lions Coach Dan Campbell is a new member of that select group, given the amazing turnaround of his team. It’s a turnaround based not only on player talent, but also on Campbell’s motivational style, exemplified by his willingness to “go for it” on fourth downs. But after the recent NFC conference title game, he may now be a management model for an entirely different reason: for the need to balance bravado with caution in evaluating risk.

For it was in that title game that Coach Campbell’s gutsy “go for it” fourth down strategy - one that served the team so well in the regular season - blew up in spectacular fashion against the more patient ‘49ers. The several critical failures to convert on fourth down contributed materially to the Lions’ loss.

And in so doing, Campbell’s decisions also sent a message to business leaders in the audience on the limits of a strategy based on the CEO’s spirit and emotion, and on a relentless “go for it” culture. That sometimes - in sports and in business - the smart play (if not the right one) is to take the field goal, and move on.

That’s in no way to suggest that risk taking is wrong, or is to be avoided. Corporate law is very clear in its support of innovative and informed risks taken in pursuit of recognized goals and objectives. Directors and officers court problems, though, when they are reckless in their decision-making; when they operate beyond the accepted boundaries of accepted risk profiles; when they operate exclusively on the basis of “gut feeling.”

In coach Campbell’s case, he was applying a strategy that had proved successful during the regular season. And, in large part, the strategy was supported by the analytics. Not only were many of his fourth down calls successful, the boldness of the calls themselves imbued within the Lions players an aggressive spirit that more often than not made the difference between victory and defeat. In his three years as head coach, Campbell turned the Lions from historic losers to winners, and rejuvenated a long-suffering fan base. The results were worth the risks - until perhaps they weren’t.

Because the law will also often consider the circumstances in which officers and directors are making decisions that involve risk. These circumstances might include the significance of the situation, the degree of risk presented, the thoroughness of the diligence and motivation of the decision maker.

The stakes for Campbell and the Lions were infinitely higher in the conference championship game than for regular season games. You lose, and you go home. The critical fourth downplay calls were made when the Lions’ lead was evaporating, and the momentum of the game was starting to shift. A field goal or two might have made a difference. “Old-school football logic,” as The Wall Street Journal called it, argued for the kick. After all, it had been 60 years since the Lions had last played in the title game.

But on the other hand, Campbell had reportedly considered the fourth down success rate data when he made his critical decisions. He knew that another touchdown was likely to do more to stop the ‘49ers momentum than a field goal. He may have been aware of how Kansas City iced its win over the Ravens with a very risky fourth quarter bomb from Patrick Mahomes. And he recognized the possible impact his caution might have had on the spirit of his own team.

In the end, he chose to “dance with the partner who had brung him,” to paraphrase Hall of Fame coach Darryl K. Royal. And that partner was a team (and culture) that was going to “bite a kneecap off” as it looked to beat you.

From the perspective of corporate law, it’s a decision that would likely be supported. It was informed, it was thoughtful, and it was absolutely in good faith. But from a broader perspective of team stakeholder interests, it’s also a decision that will be second guessed for as long as the Lions represent Detroit. That’s rarely a good thing for an organization.

No doubt amongst the millions of fans watching the game were business executives who, upon returning to work on Monday, would be confronting similar decisions presenting equal - or even greater - degrees of risk.

But should they pause to think of how Dan Campbell would handle their situation, they might think of him as a business leader who has the courage and commitment to take informed risks. They also might think of him as someone who pushed the risk envelope a bit too hard; who didn’t adjust his thinking to the circumstances at hand.

Either way, they’d probably be right in their thinking. But to paraphrase the Coach’s post-game comments, “That’s part of the gig.”’

By Michael Peregrine, Senior Contributor