How To Make Smarter (And Fewer) Business Predictions For 2025

Every year around this time, I begin getting a flurry of inquiries asking what we can expect in the upcoming year.

It’s happening again, but whereas this is usually a good time to start gathering our thoughts in that regard, this year is different. Unless you’ve been hibernating, you know that, in the most polarized political climate in memory – one in which there could be gross swings of the pendulum – anything can happen. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling two people: themselves and you.

However, with a reasonable set of expectations plus a look back on 2024’s expectations, we can begin – with the caveat that we pick up the conversation after election day.

Annual Projections, Predictions, Expectations

In essence, I believe that economists make projections and fools make predictions – and that I know I’m not the former and hope I’m not the latter. Expectations are another matter.

10 Big Stories for 2024

At last year’s end, I made a presentation to several professional networking groups, called “What’s in Store for ’24?” Skipping the details and specifics for now, I included a section called "Ten Big Stories for ’24.” Looking back on this exercise in inductive thinking, this turned out to be remarkably prescient. It’s not that there weren’t others, but these 10 certainly turned up (with comments added here):

1. A.I., especially the Ethics of … (And then some.)
2. Quantum computing (Can’t accomplish the rest without this.)
3. Fusion energy (Early stages but undeniable.)
4. Near-shoring (Nothing like good neighbors.)
5. Transportation (On Earth and beyond.)
6. More tech layoffs, but a shift, too (Layoffs are down but still a big story.)
7. The continuing hybridization of hybrid work (Still ongoing.)
8. The 4-day week (Will be an even bigger story this decade.)
9. Degrees vs. certificates (The balance is still tilting.)
10. Politics (Well, no kidding! Like never before.)

All in all, an outstanding set of expectations. Where I found this incredible valuable was in my confidence in guiding my clients – both individual and corporate – through an even more incredibly chaotic year. I’m working on 2025’s, but nowhere near ready, for one reason: next week’s election could – no, will – change everything.

Then I’ll be back at it right after that.

By Eli Amdur, Contributor